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Poll shows Yes side on course for Lisbon win
27 September 2009 By Pat Leahy, Political Editor
As the campaign for the Lisbon Treaty referendum on Friday enters its final, intensive, phase support for the Treaty remains strong, according to the final Sunday Business Post/ Red C tracking poll.
The Yes side maintains a comfortable lead among all voters and among those who say they are most likely to vote. Over half of all voters now say they will back the treaty, though almost a fifth of voters still say they are undecided.
While undecided voters voted overwhelmingly against the treaty last year, the No campaign still needs a big change in the public mood in the final days of the campaign if it is to defeat the measure again.
According to an internal memo circulated among the main anti-treaty groups and seen by The Sunday Business Post, the No campaign will seek to attack the government’s guarantees in the coming days, asserting that they do not ensure any legal protection before they formally become part of the EU treaties at the accession of Iceland or Croatia.
The memo states that this is a ‘‘crucial issue’’ and that Ireland is left exposed on ‘‘workers’ rights, life issues (abortion ‘rights’), inheritance rights, militarisation, etc’’. However, the claims are likely to be vigorously contested by the Yes campaign, which will point to the status of the guarantees as formal international agreements. Foreign minister Micheal Martin has repeatedly pointed to the similar status of the Good Friday Agreement.
According to today’s poll, some 55 per cent of Irish citizens say they will support the treaty, while 27 per cent say they will vote against it. 18 per cent are undecided. When undecideds are excluded, even assuming a strong No bias amongst them, Lisbon still has the support of over 60 per cent of voters.
Meanwhile, support for the parties remains largely unchanged since the last poll a fortnight ago.
The poll was conducted among over 1000 voters on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday of this week.
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